Tuesday, December 16, 2008

What Should Melvin's Priority Be?

With the Packers playoff hopes D.O.A., nearly everyone was paying more attention to what was happening in Las Vegas last week. What happened at Major League Baseball's Winter Meetings certainly didn't stay in Vegas, not with the type of money that was being thrown around.

It was no surprise that the Brewers lost CC Sabathia to the Yankees and their seven year offer worth $161M dollars. The surprise was that the Brewers were the only other team seemingly involved in the CC sweepstakes. They made an effort to keep Sabathia in Milwaukee, but the Yankee offer was too good to be true. He got the richest contract ever for a free agent pitcher, and he can leave The Bronx Zoo after three seasons if he doesn't like it there. How many of us would have turned that deal down? If we're all honest with ourselves, none of us would have left that kind of money on the table.

So, now the Brewers have a gaping hole in their rotation. A 6'7", 290 pound hole to be exact. And he won't be the only one leaving. Ben Sheets is expected to follow Sabathia out of town. Even though the Yankees are still an option, Sheets is probably better off going to Texas, where there is less pressure to win, less media scrutiny, and an old friend in new Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux.

If you're keeping score at home, Sheets' impending defection leaves the Brewers without their top two starters from 2008. The Crew also lost closer Salomon Torres and his 28 saves to retirement.

While most everyone expected CC and Sheets to leave, none of us had Torres' retirement on our radar screens, even though he talked about retiring right after he was traded here by the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The question begs to be asked. What should Doug Melvin fix first, the rotation or the bullpen? What should his priority be?

If it's me (and many of you are probably happy it isn't) I'd be paying more attention to the rotation than the bullpen.

Melvin has shown the ability to find a closer out of nowhere. He has done it before, in fact, he's done it multiple times. Who would have thought Dan Kolb would have been able to rack up 61 saves in the 2003 and 2004 seasons? Had any Brewers fan even heard of Derrick Turnbow before he saved 63 games in the 2005 and 2006 seasons? Francisco Cordero had been moved out of the closer's role with the Rangers before Melvin traded for him in 2006. And Torres saved 28 games (and Melvin's bacon) after The Eric Gagne ($10M) Experiment failed. In other words, Melvin has never left this organization without a solid closer, and should be able to do it again (in house candidates include Seth McClung and Jorge Julio).

The rotation needs Melvin's full attention, and it needs it now. Yovani Gallardo is the closest thing the Brewers have to a sure thing, and is considered one of the best young pitchers in the game. After Gallardo it gets dicey.

Manny Parra was 10-8 this past season, but only had one win after July 20th. Parra also tends to get too down on himself when things aren't going his way. He was beaten mentally as much as he was tired physically during his first full season in the bigs. He is no sure thing, either.

Then there's Jeff Suppan. The Brewers spent $42M on him after the 2006 season. They have received a .500 pitcher in return. 'Supp' was 12-12 with a 4.62 ERA in '07, 10-10 with a 4.96 ERA last season, and the Phillies beat him like a piƱata in Game Four of the NLDS. Suppan may be highly paid, but has not been the pitcher most of us expected him to be when he came here.

And which Dave Bush are the Brewers going to see next season? Will it be the Bush that went 4-1 in the second half of the season? The one that held the Phillies to a run on five hits in Game Three of the NLDS? Or, will the Brewers get the 'Bushie' that struggled throughout the first half? You know, the one that was demoted to Nashville at one point.

At this point, the fifth starter is anyone's guess. Among the names being thrown around include McClung and Chris Capuano. What about Carlos Villanueva, you ask? Well, in an interview Melvin gave last week, he indicated that 'Villa' is better suited for bullpen duty, maybe even as the closer.

So, as you see, the rotation could not exactly be considered at strength right now. Melvin has reportedly been in contact with the agents for Jamie Moyer, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, and Randy Wolf. In a perfect world, Melvin would have signed Moyer, who was one of the reasons the Phillies made their run to the playoffs this past season (he had 16 regular season victories, compared to 14 for Cole Hamels). But, Moyer re-signed with the Phillies yesterday, so that option is now off the table.

Johnson was able to make 31 starts for Arizona last year, but his health is always in question, whether it's his back or his knee. He is five wins away from 300, which is the only reason he is still hanging around.

Smoltz is a future Hall of Famer as well, but is also a big risk because of all the injury problems he had last season. Wolf was 6-2 with the Astros following a trade from San Diego in July. He would actually be the best option now Moyer is no longer on the market, but word is the New York Mets have focused their attention on him.

There is also the possibility that Melvin could pull off a trade and pick up a starter. It appears as if Mike Cameron is on his way to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera. Reports say Pitcher Kei Igawa could be included in the deal (NOOOOOOO!!!!). Maybe the deal could be expanded to include Bill Hall, and if that's the case, the Brewers should ask for Ian Kennedy in return (New York would never give up Phil Hughes for a Cameron/Hall package. Kennedy may never get the chance to flourish in New York because of the expectations and media, but that wouldn't be a problem here in Milwaukee.

Do you need more proof that the rotation needs more attention than the bullpen? Well, consider this. The Reds outbid the Brewers for Francisco Cordero a year ago. Sure, they got 34 saves, but the Reds finished with a 74-88 record. What's the lesson learned there?

Simply this. Having a closer is nice, but it doesn't make a big difference if the closer doesn't have a lead to protect.

Let's hope Melvin paid attention to that and acts accordingly.

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