By now I'm pretty sure you've had enough of the Alex Rodriguez positive steroids test story. The Bucks resemble a MASH unit, and I don't want to kick them while they're down (though that was a great game against Detroit on Saturday night). The Brewers report to Arizona this week, and until they start playing the games for real the questions that have been swirling around the club since December will remain unanswered.
So it's a pretty good time to focus on the Green Bay Packers. The Pro Bowl (yes they still play the game) is in the books, meaning the 2008 season is officially over (operative word being officially). Over the next few weeks we'll see players cut, traded, and tagged. Then free agency starts.
Ah, free agency. Every Packer fan reading these words right now has talked about free agency once or twice since Ted Thompson took over as GM in January of 2005. And most Packer fans, armed with the knowledge that the team could be as much as $32M under a $130M cap, are dreaming that their favorite team signs either Julius Peppers (who wants out of Carolina), Albert Haynesworth, or Terrell Suggs. These fans are dreaming that the Packers hold a news conference where one of those players will pose with a Green and Gold jersey, smiling and shaking hands with Thompson.
It's important to remember that those are just dreams. reality is going to be very different.
Reality is this. Not only will none of those players sign with the Packers, but it's a good bet that none of those players will ever come close to signing with the Pack.
Conventional wisdom says that Thompson is going to go against what he believes, and throw money at as many free agents as possible in order to win now. Conventional wisdom says Mark Murphy didn't hire Thompson, so he has no loyalty to him, and a repeat of this past season's 6-10 mark will mean Thompson could be let go with another bad season. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Thompson signed a long term contract extension about a year ago last I checked. The Packers are not known for eating a lot of money. In the economy we live in right now, most professional sports franchises will think very hard before eating money on a contract. This fact alone means Thompson is safer than his detractors would like him to be.
Since that's the case, why would Thompson change his ways? Why would he change his view on free agency?
Do the packers have needs? Yes. There's no doubt about it. But, they had needs in 2005 after Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera left. They were replaced (originally) by Matt O'Dwyer and Adrian Klemm, a couple of free agents. To say they didn't work out would be a major understatement, and led directly to the Darryn Colledge/Jason Spitz combination the Packers have now.
In 2006, the Packers signed Ryan Pickett, Charles Woodson, and Marquand Manuel as their key free agents. Woodson and Pickett worked out, but Manuel was even more of a disappointment than Klemm and O'Dwyer.
If you're keeping score, Thompson's track record on key free agents is two out of five. That's forty percent. Knowing the way Thompson thinks, the success rate (or lack thereof) justifies his desire to stay away from the big name free agents.
Another reason Thompson isn't likely to change in this, the Era of Change, is the turnover the Packers just had on their coaching staff. Out went Bob Sanders and his defensive staff. In comes Dom Capers and the 3-4. Changing the defense means Aaron Kampman will move to an Outside Linebacker spot. Changing the defense also means the Packers will need to upgrade the defensive line (specifically the ends).
But, Capers learned a lot while he was in Pittsburgh. one of those lessons was to develop your own players. The Steelers used to lose players to free agency year after year. They rarely, if ever, went out and signed a free agent to replace them. They just plugged the next guy in and watched him succeed. Thompson runs his team in very much the same manner. Capers will make do with what he has now, and with what Thompson will provide him in the draft.
The Packers also believe the collapse of the defense in 2008 was directly due to the system former co-ordinator Sanders ran. It was the classic definition of a read and react defense. No defensive player (and I've asked Gilbert Brown this question) enjoys playing in that kind of defense. Defensive players want to hit. The new system that Capers will install will do just that. It will allow them to be aggressive. The Packers would like to see how Kampman, A.J. Hawk, Nick Barnett, and Brady Poppinga do in a system that suits their talents before throwing money at players that may or may not work out.
I'm not saying that it's the way I'd conduct the off-season if I were in Thompson's shoes. I'm just telling you that to realistically expect the Packers to make a big splash in free agency, is, well, unrealistic.
So it's a pretty good time to focus on the Green Bay Packers. The Pro Bowl (yes they still play the game) is in the books, meaning the 2008 season is officially over (operative word being officially). Over the next few weeks we'll see players cut, traded, and tagged. Then free agency starts.
Ah, free agency. Every Packer fan reading these words right now has talked about free agency once or twice since Ted Thompson took over as GM in January of 2005. And most Packer fans, armed with the knowledge that the team could be as much as $32M under a $130M cap, are dreaming that their favorite team signs either Julius Peppers (who wants out of Carolina), Albert Haynesworth, or Terrell Suggs. These fans are dreaming that the Packers hold a news conference where one of those players will pose with a Green and Gold jersey, smiling and shaking hands with Thompson.
It's important to remember that those are just dreams. reality is going to be very different.
Reality is this. Not only will none of those players sign with the Packers, but it's a good bet that none of those players will ever come close to signing with the Pack.
Conventional wisdom says that Thompson is going to go against what he believes, and throw money at as many free agents as possible in order to win now. Conventional wisdom says Mark Murphy didn't hire Thompson, so he has no loyalty to him, and a repeat of this past season's 6-10 mark will mean Thompson could be let go with another bad season. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Thompson signed a long term contract extension about a year ago last I checked. The Packers are not known for eating a lot of money. In the economy we live in right now, most professional sports franchises will think very hard before eating money on a contract. This fact alone means Thompson is safer than his detractors would like him to be.
Since that's the case, why would Thompson change his ways? Why would he change his view on free agency?
Do the packers have needs? Yes. There's no doubt about it. But, they had needs in 2005 after Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera left. They were replaced (originally) by Matt O'Dwyer and Adrian Klemm, a couple of free agents. To say they didn't work out would be a major understatement, and led directly to the Darryn Colledge/Jason Spitz combination the Packers have now.
In 2006, the Packers signed Ryan Pickett, Charles Woodson, and Marquand Manuel as their key free agents. Woodson and Pickett worked out, but Manuel was even more of a disappointment than Klemm and O'Dwyer.
If you're keeping score, Thompson's track record on key free agents is two out of five. That's forty percent. Knowing the way Thompson thinks, the success rate (or lack thereof) justifies his desire to stay away from the big name free agents.
Another reason Thompson isn't likely to change in this, the Era of Change, is the turnover the Packers just had on their coaching staff. Out went Bob Sanders and his defensive staff. In comes Dom Capers and the 3-4. Changing the defense means Aaron Kampman will move to an Outside Linebacker spot. Changing the defense also means the Packers will need to upgrade the defensive line (specifically the ends).
But, Capers learned a lot while he was in Pittsburgh. one of those lessons was to develop your own players. The Steelers used to lose players to free agency year after year. They rarely, if ever, went out and signed a free agent to replace them. They just plugged the next guy in and watched him succeed. Thompson runs his team in very much the same manner. Capers will make do with what he has now, and with what Thompson will provide him in the draft.
The Packers also believe the collapse of the defense in 2008 was directly due to the system former co-ordinator Sanders ran. It was the classic definition of a read and react defense. No defensive player (and I've asked Gilbert Brown this question) enjoys playing in that kind of defense. Defensive players want to hit. The new system that Capers will install will do just that. It will allow them to be aggressive. The Packers would like to see how Kampman, A.J. Hawk, Nick Barnett, and Brady Poppinga do in a system that suits their talents before throwing money at players that may or may not work out.
I'm not saying that it's the way I'd conduct the off-season if I were in Thompson's shoes. I'm just telling you that to realistically expect the Packers to make a big splash in free agency, is, well, unrealistic.
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