The All-Star break is here. The Brewers ended the first half on a down note - losing eleven of their last nineteen. Still, a quick look at the standings shows that things aren't as bad as they seem. The Brewers are 45-43, and just two and a half games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central. Of course, if you listen to some of the radio shows around here, you'll hear some people say that the sky is falling. You'll hear some panic. Don't buy into it.
There are few reasons why. First of all, two and a half games is not a whole lot to make up - especially with seventy-four games left in the regular season. Not to bring up old wounds, but just ask the Cubs of a couple of years ago. Ask the 1978 Yankees, who were fourteen and a half back at the break - and they won the World Series!!
The Cardinals look good - and yes, they might be the team that eventually lands Roy Halladay (they have the quantity and quality of prospects Toronto is seeking). But if they don't land Halladay they can be caught from behind. They have Albert Pujols, but they have their issues as well (third base has been a problem, as have down seasons by Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel). They are not invincible.
The Cubs - well, we all know what's gone down in Chicago this season. Sure, they have the potential to be a factor, but potential and production might be two different things. On top of that, I keep waiting for Lou Piniella to blow a gasket. Instead, he's trying to be the calm, cool, and collected one. Something is very wrong with that.
The Astros have managed to get back to .500 after starting the season badly, but until proven otherwise, I put them in the same category as the Reds and Pirates. They are more of a pretender than a contender.
Not only is winning the division a distinct possibility, but don't count this team out of the wildcard as well. The Brewers are four games out there. The Giants look good right now, but I am not sure if they have the hitting (outside of Pablo Sandoval, who is just a lot of fun to watch) to keep it up. They ask a lot from their pitchers given the state of their offense. Colorado has been red hot, but do they have what it takes to keep it up? And the Florida Marlins haven't been consistent enough to be a threat. They have not been a particularly good baseball team since a hot start a few months ago.
You want other reasons to be positive about the second half? I've got some for you. Dave Bush is on target to make his return from the DL. There is no reason to think we won't see the Bush we saw before he got hurt. The Bush that struggled before being put on the DL was not a hundred percent physically. The pre-injury Bush looked a lot like the guy we saw in the second half of last year.
If Bush returns and is close to the pitcher he can be, then the rotation looks a lot better than it does right now. Yovanni Gallardo has lost his last three starts, but it's really the first stretch he's gone through at this level where he has struggled. He's closer to the guy that has eight wins than the guy that we've seen over the last couple of weeks (and granted, he might not have lost two of those games had the Brewers given him any run support at all). Jeff Suppan isn't great, but he's not the worst pitcher ever. And, Braden Looper has been better than I thought he'd be.
That being said, Manny Parra might turn out to be the key for the rotation. I know it's tough to swallow for fans, given the nightmare of a first half he had, but it is true. If Parra can build on his performance against the Cardinals this past Thursday (seven shutout innings), then the rotation is going to look a lot better than it has for the last few weeks. Sometimes young pitchers struggle in their first year or two, then work things out thanks to a trip to the minor leagues. You hope that Chris Bosio was able to straighten Parra out while he was with the Nashville Sounds.
The Brewers have really no other choice than to hope Parra and Bush pitch up to their capabilities. Roy Halladay isn't coming here. And the price for some of the other pitchers on the market (like Doug Davis) is probably higher than GM Doug Melvin wants to pay.
One last reason to feel better about the Brewers' chances in the second half is the schedule. Among the teams the Brewers will face include the Reds, Pirates, Braves, Nationals, and Padres. None of these clubs will remind anyone of the Dodgers or Cardinals. The Brewers - at least on paper - have a good chance to get on a roll in the second half. I understand they don't play the games on paper. But, until I'm proven wrong, I'll look at the second half schedule and feel a lot better about this team's chances.
Of course, not everything is perfect. This team has its share of problems. The rotation isn't the only part of the club that has struggled. The lineup has its holes, and the bullpen has been spotty outside of Trevor Hoffman lately. But, I have some unsolicited suggestions to help manager Ken Macha work those problems out.
The first thing Macha should do is make rookie Mat Gamel the every day third baseman, if for no other reason than it eliminates the Bill Hall option. No offense to Hall or any of his fans, but let's face it - he has not been the same player since hitting 35 homers in 2006. The last couple of years people wrote off because Hall was making position changes. That excuse isn't available this year. The lasik surgery he had during the off-season didn't solve his problems either. Hall simply had a career year in 2006. He is a shell of the player we saw three years ago, and one that doesn't need to get at bats considering his .199 average.
Gamel, on the other hand needs the playing time. Are his numbers what anyone wants them to be? No, but he hasn't gotten consistent playing time. I'd like to see what he would do if he played every day. Just look at the homer he hit Friday night against the Dodgers. The thing that jumped out at me was his bat speed. He'd be a lot more productive if he played every day. His defense remains a concern, but his bat is what the Brewers need right now.
Not only should Gamel be playing every day, but I'd have Casey McGehee in the lineup at second base every day. I was wrong about the former Chicago Cub farmhand. He's not just a throwaway guy. He's a player. Sure, his knees give him problems from time to time, and he has almost as much speed as I do, but he is a player. His on base percentage ranks third on the club behind Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. His .329 average is better than every regular or semi-regular on the roster. The guy just makes things happen. He's the kind of guy you need in this lineup. And, I'd have him at the top of the order, too. I can't knock Jason Kendall - he's giving you everything he's got and he is very good defensively. I just cringe when I see him at the top of the order.
I know that the promotions of Gamel and McGehee would cost Craig Counsell his everyday spot at second base, but I believe Counsell would be more valuable as the team's super-sub. If McGehee needs a day off because of his knees, well just slide Counsell into that spot. If Gamel's glove is a concern in the late innings, Counsell would make a good defensive replacement. If J.J. Hardy - who started to hit a little bit before the break - doesn't get completely back on track, well Counsell can help out there, too. Counsell is having a really good season - far better than anyone of us could have dreamed - but he's better suited for the super-sub role that I'm talking about here.
I wish I had a solution to Corey Hart's problems in rightfield. Maybe he comes back from the break, and the light finally goes on inside of his head. It's been off since the All Star break a year ago. Macha really has no other choice than to play him. Frank Catalanotto isn't an every day player, and as for Jody Gerut - well, let's just leave him alone. Unless a deal is made - and I'm not sure there is one to be had - Hart is the guy Macha has to sink or swim with.
There are also problems in the bullpen. It (okay, Carlos Villanueva) has let Macha down lately. But considering how effective it was for much of the first half, I have to think it will come around.
So, with the season resuming on Thursday in Cincinnati, things could be better for the Brewers. Two games above .500 was not what anyone had in mind.
But, things could also be a lot worse. Don't buy into the panic. Don't look for a ledge to jump off of.
The 2009 Milwaukee Brewers story has yet to be written.
There are few reasons why. First of all, two and a half games is not a whole lot to make up - especially with seventy-four games left in the regular season. Not to bring up old wounds, but just ask the Cubs of a couple of years ago. Ask the 1978 Yankees, who were fourteen and a half back at the break - and they won the World Series!!
The Cardinals look good - and yes, they might be the team that eventually lands Roy Halladay (they have the quantity and quality of prospects Toronto is seeking). But if they don't land Halladay they can be caught from behind. They have Albert Pujols, but they have their issues as well (third base has been a problem, as have down seasons by Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel). They are not invincible.
The Cubs - well, we all know what's gone down in Chicago this season. Sure, they have the potential to be a factor, but potential and production might be two different things. On top of that, I keep waiting for Lou Piniella to blow a gasket. Instead, he's trying to be the calm, cool, and collected one. Something is very wrong with that.
The Astros have managed to get back to .500 after starting the season badly, but until proven otherwise, I put them in the same category as the Reds and Pirates. They are more of a pretender than a contender.
Not only is winning the division a distinct possibility, but don't count this team out of the wildcard as well. The Brewers are four games out there. The Giants look good right now, but I am not sure if they have the hitting (outside of Pablo Sandoval, who is just a lot of fun to watch) to keep it up. They ask a lot from their pitchers given the state of their offense. Colorado has been red hot, but do they have what it takes to keep it up? And the Florida Marlins haven't been consistent enough to be a threat. They have not been a particularly good baseball team since a hot start a few months ago.
You want other reasons to be positive about the second half? I've got some for you. Dave Bush is on target to make his return from the DL. There is no reason to think we won't see the Bush we saw before he got hurt. The Bush that struggled before being put on the DL was not a hundred percent physically. The pre-injury Bush looked a lot like the guy we saw in the second half of last year.
If Bush returns and is close to the pitcher he can be, then the rotation looks a lot better than it does right now. Yovanni Gallardo has lost his last three starts, but it's really the first stretch he's gone through at this level where he has struggled. He's closer to the guy that has eight wins than the guy that we've seen over the last couple of weeks (and granted, he might not have lost two of those games had the Brewers given him any run support at all). Jeff Suppan isn't great, but he's not the worst pitcher ever. And, Braden Looper has been better than I thought he'd be.
That being said, Manny Parra might turn out to be the key for the rotation. I know it's tough to swallow for fans, given the nightmare of a first half he had, but it is true. If Parra can build on his performance against the Cardinals this past Thursday (seven shutout innings), then the rotation is going to look a lot better than it has for the last few weeks. Sometimes young pitchers struggle in their first year or two, then work things out thanks to a trip to the minor leagues. You hope that Chris Bosio was able to straighten Parra out while he was with the Nashville Sounds.
The Brewers have really no other choice than to hope Parra and Bush pitch up to their capabilities. Roy Halladay isn't coming here. And the price for some of the other pitchers on the market (like Doug Davis) is probably higher than GM Doug Melvin wants to pay.
One last reason to feel better about the Brewers' chances in the second half is the schedule. Among the teams the Brewers will face include the Reds, Pirates, Braves, Nationals, and Padres. None of these clubs will remind anyone of the Dodgers or Cardinals. The Brewers - at least on paper - have a good chance to get on a roll in the second half. I understand they don't play the games on paper. But, until I'm proven wrong, I'll look at the second half schedule and feel a lot better about this team's chances.
Of course, not everything is perfect. This team has its share of problems. The rotation isn't the only part of the club that has struggled. The lineup has its holes, and the bullpen has been spotty outside of Trevor Hoffman lately. But, I have some unsolicited suggestions to help manager Ken Macha work those problems out.
The first thing Macha should do is make rookie Mat Gamel the every day third baseman, if for no other reason than it eliminates the Bill Hall option. No offense to Hall or any of his fans, but let's face it - he has not been the same player since hitting 35 homers in 2006. The last couple of years people wrote off because Hall was making position changes. That excuse isn't available this year. The lasik surgery he had during the off-season didn't solve his problems either. Hall simply had a career year in 2006. He is a shell of the player we saw three years ago, and one that doesn't need to get at bats considering his .199 average.
Gamel, on the other hand needs the playing time. Are his numbers what anyone wants them to be? No, but he hasn't gotten consistent playing time. I'd like to see what he would do if he played every day. Just look at the homer he hit Friday night against the Dodgers. The thing that jumped out at me was his bat speed. He'd be a lot more productive if he played every day. His defense remains a concern, but his bat is what the Brewers need right now.
Not only should Gamel be playing every day, but I'd have Casey McGehee in the lineup at second base every day. I was wrong about the former Chicago Cub farmhand. He's not just a throwaway guy. He's a player. Sure, his knees give him problems from time to time, and he has almost as much speed as I do, but he is a player. His on base percentage ranks third on the club behind Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. His .329 average is better than every regular or semi-regular on the roster. The guy just makes things happen. He's the kind of guy you need in this lineup. And, I'd have him at the top of the order, too. I can't knock Jason Kendall - he's giving you everything he's got and he is very good defensively. I just cringe when I see him at the top of the order.
I know that the promotions of Gamel and McGehee would cost Craig Counsell his everyday spot at second base, but I believe Counsell would be more valuable as the team's super-sub. If McGehee needs a day off because of his knees, well just slide Counsell into that spot. If Gamel's glove is a concern in the late innings, Counsell would make a good defensive replacement. If J.J. Hardy - who started to hit a little bit before the break - doesn't get completely back on track, well Counsell can help out there, too. Counsell is having a really good season - far better than anyone of us could have dreamed - but he's better suited for the super-sub role that I'm talking about here.
I wish I had a solution to Corey Hart's problems in rightfield. Maybe he comes back from the break, and the light finally goes on inside of his head. It's been off since the All Star break a year ago. Macha really has no other choice than to play him. Frank Catalanotto isn't an every day player, and as for Jody Gerut - well, let's just leave him alone. Unless a deal is made - and I'm not sure there is one to be had - Hart is the guy Macha has to sink or swim with.
There are also problems in the bullpen. It (okay, Carlos Villanueva) has let Macha down lately. But considering how effective it was for much of the first half, I have to think it will come around.
So, with the season resuming on Thursday in Cincinnati, things could be better for the Brewers. Two games above .500 was not what anyone had in mind.
But, things could also be a lot worse. Don't buy into the panic. Don't look for a ledge to jump off of.
The 2009 Milwaukee Brewers story has yet to be written.
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