The NBA's silly season is here. It's July first, and the free agent market is open for business. It's not the blockbuster market that we will say a year from now. But there are still some useful pieces out there.
Hedo Turkoglu is a 6-10 sharpshooter that might have gotten a raw deal in Orlando. Ben Gordon of the Bulls is probably going to leave Chicago after the two sides tried and failed for two years to come to terms on a new deal. Trevor Ariza may cash in on a nice little playoff run. Lamar Odom has talent that teams fall in love with (though consistency has always been an issue) Andre Miller, Jason Kidd, and Mike Bibby are the point guards that will be shopping for a new home. Houston's Ron Artest is available as well if you like to gamble with your franchise's future. And Paul Milsap, David Lee, and Ramon Session are three restricted free agents that teams will have their eyes on.
Again, it's not a bad class, but it isn't quite as sexy as the one we'll see next summer, when some dude named Lebron will auction off his services.
The big question, though, is whether or not this class of free agents will hit the lottery. Will NBA teams overpay as they have done many times in the past? Or, will financial responsibility be the new buzzword?
At the end of the day, financial responsibility will win out. Even some ofthe prospective free agents realized that, which is why Carlos Boozer of the Jazz decided to stay in Utah as opposed to opting out. I know, you probably think I'm crazy. The NBA is a league where stiffs like Milwaukee's Dan Gadzuric scored a six year deal worth $36M a few years ago. But, before you hit send on the email you'll write me and tell me I have no idea what I'm talking about, consider these factors.
* The economy is still not in good shape. Don't let the partisan political hacks fool you into thinking that everything is on track to recover from where it was a few months ago. It just doesn't happen that quickly. The NBA has suffered like everyone else did. Did you notice the amount of empty seats at the arenas around the country this past season? That has affected the bottom line, and the bottom line is what rules right now.
* The NBA is rumored to be lowering the salary cap while raising the luxury tax threshold. Not every NBA team is swimming in cash the way the Lakers are. There are teams who used to spend like a drunken sailor that won't do it this time around because they don't want to pay a luxury tax.
* Other sports have had to dial back on free agent spending because of the recession. The NFL was the exception to the rule, but take a look at what happened in baseball this past winter. How many free agents had to wait until March to sign with a team? Manny Ramirez couldn't get anyone to offer him the kind of cash he was looking for. Orlando Hudson was a late addition to the Dodgers. Adam Dunn, one of the game premier power hitters, had to settle for a two year deal from the Washington Nationals of all teams.
The NFL is a cash cow. MLB still is, but there numbers are off from where they were a year ago. The NBA is no longer the moneymaker it used to be - at least not at the same level it was at during the Magic-Larry-Michael heyday. Don't think for a second that isn't going to be a factor this summer.
* Next year's free agent class is going to have a big impact on the class of 2009. Why, if you are the New York Knicks, for instance, would you spend millions this summer, and reduce any chance you have of signing a James next year? You wouldn't, plain and simple. The Knicks aren't the only team in the league that think they can land Lebron. There are ten teams that think they probably have a shot. And because they do, they won't be spending major money this summer.
I actually feel bad for this summer's free agents. If there was ever a year not to be a free agent, it's this one. In the past, a free agent could count on one team overspending to acquire his services.
That's the past. The future may look a lot like the past.
But we're not in the past or the future. We're in the present.
And the present doesn't look all that good.
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