Thursday, July 9, 2009

Bringing Halladay (Or Anyone Else) To Milwaukee This Summer Might Be Easier Said Than Done



The Brewers have been struggling for a little while now. They've gone from first place in the NL Central to looking up at the St. Louis Cardinals, and those two teams will wrap up their three game set later today. The Crew is smack dab in the middle of that tough stretch which included games against the Mets, Cubs, Cards, and Dodgers before the All Star break hits. It started out well enough against New York, as Ken Macha's club took two of three from a Mets team decimated by injuries. The Cubs landed a couple of haymakers while winning three of four last weekend. The Cards could take a two game lead on the Brewers in the NL Central. And the Dodgers have been one of the best teams in all of baseball this season.

Everyone knows why the team is struggling. Forty percent of the starting rotation that was here in April is somewhere else now. Dave Bush is on the DL, and Manny Parra is trying to regain his confidence in Triple A. Mike Burns and Seth McClung have simply not been up to the task of replacing them.

But, pitching certainly isn't the only thing ailing the Brewers. The bats haven't exactly been hot lately, either. You want proof? All you need to do is look at what happened Tuesday night against Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright. The Brewers - at one point - had three hits and a walk in a single inning. How many runs did that produce? Zero. Zip. Nada. Bubkus. That is inexcusable. Yovanni Gallardo is good, but you cannot expect him to be perfect every time out.

Prince Fielder is producing. So are Ryan Braun, Casey McGehee, and to a lesser extend, Craig Counsell. Outside of that, there are problems. Where is the Corey Hart that got into the All Star Game last year? I haven't seen him since that July night in New York. Mike Cameron has cooled off considerably since a hot start. Jason Kendall's bat really hurts when there are other problems in the lineup. J. J. Hardy is having a down year (I'm being kind), and the only reason Bill Hall is still here is because no one will take his bloated contract. After hitting 35 homers in 2006, it's hard to comprehend why he is hitting under .200.

So, Ryan Braun had the right idea when he addressed the team's problems after another loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Braun did it partly to fire the club up - as he did earlier this season and last season after that awful sweep in Boston. But he also did it because he sees things going badly and knows the team needs reinforcements.

He's not the only one that sees it. GM Doug Melvin does as well. He knows this is a flawed team. He knows the starting pitching has become suspect (an understatement). He knows the lineup has suffered ever since Rickie Weeks went down with his injury. What he didn't want was his star player to point it out to him for the entire world to see.

I have no problem with what Braun did. Maybe this team needs a kick in the ass. Actually, there are no maybes about it. They do. The choice of words could have been different, but I won't blow it out of proportion like others have done.

Braun's request for the Brewers to bring in some help was followed by the news that Toronto has put ace starter Roy Halladay on the block. Immediately, Brewer fans tried to dream up deals that would bring Halladay to Milwaukee. There are some experts - like my friend Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports - who think that the Brewers should be on the list of teams that will go after Halladay. The logic behind that thinking is that Melvin pulled off a blockbuster for CC Sabathia last summer. But that was last year. This year is going to be a completely different story.

There will be no Halladay trade. In fact, there might not be any move at all.

Not that Melvin and his staff won't try. But trying to make a deal and actually completing said deal might be two different things.

Let's deal with the Halladay scenario first. There are a couple of reasons it won't happen. Halladay has pitched in relative obscurity in Toronto. Make no mistake. Toronto is a hockey city first, second, and third. Then comes football (Buffalo is only 90 miles away). Baseball is a solid third (but would be second if the Jays had won anything since 1993). Halladay might want a bit of the spotlight, and if the Phillies and Yankees are after him, then the Brewers don't stand a chance of landing him. True, the Brewers are a contender, but Philly just won the World Series and the Yankees are the Yankees. Halladay can pick and choose where he will go because of his no trade, and I'm not sure Milwaukee would be on his list of teams he'd approe a trade to.

Then again, I doubt the Brewers have enough to actually get the deal done. Toronto is said to be looking for a huge return if they do wind up parting with 'Doc.' We're talking a package of five players from what I have heard (courtesy of ESPN's Buster Olney). The Brewers farm system isn't depleted, but they don't have the quantity that Toronto is looking for. And they certainly don't have it in the pitching department.

Another reason I wouldn't plan on getting Halladay's name and number embroidered on your jersey right now is because of last year's CC trade. Melvin parted with his top prospect in Matt LaPorta, and a couple of other good young pieces in order to rent Sabathia for three months. He has already said he isn't going to trade any more of his top young guns. That means Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar are off the table. I believe Melvin when he says this. He's not Brian Chasman, who has no problem in selling the farm to win now. He runs the Brewers differently.

And if the Brewers won't deal their top prospects, I doubt they have enough on the big league level to get it done. Corey Hart is a nice piece, but he doesn't bring you Roy Halladay. Neither does J.J. Hardy, who I can't see being moved because you don't throw a rookie shortstop into the fire of a pennant race midway through the season unless you absolutely have to (because of injuries).

So, Halladay is off the table. There have been rumblings about Javier Vazquez of the Braves. I don't see that happening, either. Sure, the ERA is down from where it was a year ago. But, Vazquez hasn't always been a guy you can count on in crunch time. Ask the Yankees and White Sox. He's just not a big game pitcher, and if the Braves want Gamel in return, well let's just say it would be lunacy to pull the trigger on that deal.

Another trade possibility - if you believe the 'insiders' is Doug Davis, who would also bring infielder Felipe Lopez with him. Sure, Lopez is having a nice season, but is it just an aberration? His career numbers suggest that it might be. He's had only one really productive season - and that was four years ago. I get nervous about guys like Lopez - who produce for teams going nowhere, but might not be able to perform at the same level during the heat of a pennant race.

And - as far as Davis goes - haven't we been there and done that with him? He's just a guy. He's not anything special. He's not going to rescue your season the way Sabathia did last September. He's a journeyman. So is Lopez. And, given all the teams that are looking for pitching, the price for those two players is probably higher than Melvin is willing to play.

I don't mean to throw a fly in the ointment. I know fans get excited by trade rumors. But that's what they are - rumors. They are fantasy, not reality.

And reality is Halladay isn't going to be a Brewer. There won't be a trade withToronto. There may not be a trade at all.

Sometimes reality bites, doesn't it?


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

"According to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals' interest in Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay is very real.

Here's what Strauss tweeted just a moment ago: Asked about the price tag for Halladay, a club source said: "Give Ricciardi all our minor-league rosters and let him circle any 5 names."

A deal with the Cardinals would start with Brett Wallace, and might also include shortstop Pete Kozma, catcher Bryan Anderson, outfielder Daryl Jones and/or right-hander Clay Mortensen. We're just throwing the Birds' top prospects out on the table, but that's what it's going to take. According to Erik Manning of FutureRedbirds.net, via the Post-Dispatch's Bernie Miklasz, the Jays "showed a lot of pre-draft interest" in both Wallace and Kozma."

The above paragraphs are exactly why the Cardinals will get Halladay, and we won't....

Better luck next season

1. Halladay
2. Carpenter
3. Wainwright
4. Loshe
5. Pinero