When the season started in April, many had the Brewers and Cubs as the favorites in the National League Central. So far, that has played out. But, what the experts didn't necessarily count on was the way a seemingly undermanned St. Louis Cardinals team shot up the standings. What the experts couldn't predict was the way Cecil Cooper's Houston Astros got themselves off the canvas to become a threat in the division. Heck, up until recently the Cincinnati Reds were making some noise. About the only team out of it was Pittsburgh, and it looks like the Pirates are in fire sale mode again.
With a little over two months to go in the season, the picture in the NL Central is murkier than ever. There are four teams that have shows the ability to get hot and take control. But, showing the ability to do it and actually doing it are two different things.
Which leaves a lot of people around here wondering where the Brewers fit in. Are they as good as they showed when they went on that little 21-5 run earlier this season? Or, are they as bad as the team that has been well below .500 outside that run?
To me, it's real simple. They are neither as good as their hot streak showed, and they aren't as bad as their struggles have shown either. In most years, and in most divisions, a team like the Brewers would be forced to think about next year. But, we are talking about the NL Central here.
Look at the standings again. Yes, the Brewers are looking up at three teams. But do any of those three teams really scare you? The Astros recently lost Lance Berkman to a calf injury - one that forced him to the DL. Can the Astros survive Berkman's absence? If they can, then you have to worry about them. But, if losing two out of three to the New York Mets (a team that has looked absolutely awful lately) is any indication, Cooper's team has their work cut out for them.
The Cardinals didn't have the greatest of weeks last week - getting swept by Houston and losing two out of three at Philadelphia. Now the Cardinals are facing the Dodgers at home before a rematch with Houston this weekend at Busch Stadium. The Cards have been the most aggressive team in the division - dealing multiple prospects in order to acquire Mark Derosa and Matt Holliday. On paper, they have a potent lineup and their rotation - with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright at the top - looks tough as well. But, they have to start playing like the team that vaulted up the standings in June and less like the team that struggled against the Astros and Phillies. It might take a few more games for the Cardinals to get it figured out, but you'd have to think they will. Tony LaRussa has done more with less (as evidenced by winning a World Series in 2006 with a team that won just 83 games in the regular season).
The Cubs still have the most talent in the division, and are finally starting to play like the team most thought they were going to be. They have survived injuries and the struggles of star players like Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley. They were thought to be dead not so long ago, but here they are - smack in the middle of things. They, like the Astros - have another injury to fight through, though. This time it's Ted Lilly that's on the DL. So far the Cubs have dealt with all the adversity, but you have to wonder if they can continue to do so, especially with the problems Soriano and Milton Bradley have had.
Which brings us to the Brewers. Yes, it was nice to get a useful piece like Felipe Lopez, but he won't be the piece that gets the Brewers over the top. There are rumors about Cliff Lee (I'm not going to mention Roy Halladay because the Blue Jays' asking price is way too high if the publicized talks with the Phillies are any indication). There are rumors about Wisconsin native Jarrod Washburn - who is enjoying a good season with a Seattle Mariners team that has been better than they were expected to be. I don't see the Brewers landing Lee, but Washburn is more than just a possibility. Remember that Doug Melvin would be working with his old scouting director in Jack Zduriencik - now the GM in Seattle. There won't be any secrets between these two. I could see the Brewers acquiring Washburn without giving up too many prospects.
If that trade - or a Lee trade - gets done, then the Brewers (at least on paper) have some things going for them. If no trade is made, then the Brewers will be hard pressed to turn things around. The pitching outside of Yovani Gallardo isn't strong enough (though Dave Bush will help when he returns). The bullpen - with the exception of Trevor Hoffman has been inconsistent (I'm being kind here). The lineup hasn't been nearly as potent as it should be with the talent that's out there (Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder could use some help from Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy). We've seen that the pitching isn't good enough to overcome the lack of production behind them.
So, whether or not the Brewers can make up what is not a big deficit in the division might very well come down to Doug Melvin and his ability to make a trade that will help this team. He's done it in the past. He might not be able to make a CC Sabathia type of trade, but he has more than enough ammunition to make a deal for Washburn.
The Cardinals have shown they are willing to go for it now. When it comes down to it, the Cubs probably will, too.
It's your move, Doug. Are you all in?
With a little over two months to go in the season, the picture in the NL Central is murkier than ever. There are four teams that have shows the ability to get hot and take control. But, showing the ability to do it and actually doing it are two different things.
Which leaves a lot of people around here wondering where the Brewers fit in. Are they as good as they showed when they went on that little 21-5 run earlier this season? Or, are they as bad as the team that has been well below .500 outside that run?
To me, it's real simple. They are neither as good as their hot streak showed, and they aren't as bad as their struggles have shown either. In most years, and in most divisions, a team like the Brewers would be forced to think about next year. But, we are talking about the NL Central here.
Look at the standings again. Yes, the Brewers are looking up at three teams. But do any of those three teams really scare you? The Astros recently lost Lance Berkman to a calf injury - one that forced him to the DL. Can the Astros survive Berkman's absence? If they can, then you have to worry about them. But, if losing two out of three to the New York Mets (a team that has looked absolutely awful lately) is any indication, Cooper's team has their work cut out for them.
The Cardinals didn't have the greatest of weeks last week - getting swept by Houston and losing two out of three at Philadelphia. Now the Cardinals are facing the Dodgers at home before a rematch with Houston this weekend at Busch Stadium. The Cards have been the most aggressive team in the division - dealing multiple prospects in order to acquire Mark Derosa and Matt Holliday. On paper, they have a potent lineup and their rotation - with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright at the top - looks tough as well. But, they have to start playing like the team that vaulted up the standings in June and less like the team that struggled against the Astros and Phillies. It might take a few more games for the Cardinals to get it figured out, but you'd have to think they will. Tony LaRussa has done more with less (as evidenced by winning a World Series in 2006 with a team that won just 83 games in the regular season).
The Cubs still have the most talent in the division, and are finally starting to play like the team most thought they were going to be. They have survived injuries and the struggles of star players like Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley. They were thought to be dead not so long ago, but here they are - smack in the middle of things. They, like the Astros - have another injury to fight through, though. This time it's Ted Lilly that's on the DL. So far the Cubs have dealt with all the adversity, but you have to wonder if they can continue to do so, especially with the problems Soriano and Milton Bradley have had.
Which brings us to the Brewers. Yes, it was nice to get a useful piece like Felipe Lopez, but he won't be the piece that gets the Brewers over the top. There are rumors about Cliff Lee (I'm not going to mention Roy Halladay because the Blue Jays' asking price is way too high if the publicized talks with the Phillies are any indication). There are rumors about Wisconsin native Jarrod Washburn - who is enjoying a good season with a Seattle Mariners team that has been better than they were expected to be. I don't see the Brewers landing Lee, but Washburn is more than just a possibility. Remember that Doug Melvin would be working with his old scouting director in Jack Zduriencik - now the GM in Seattle. There won't be any secrets between these two. I could see the Brewers acquiring Washburn without giving up too many prospects.
If that trade - or a Lee trade - gets done, then the Brewers (at least on paper) have some things going for them. If no trade is made, then the Brewers will be hard pressed to turn things around. The pitching outside of Yovani Gallardo isn't strong enough (though Dave Bush will help when he returns). The bullpen - with the exception of Trevor Hoffman has been inconsistent (I'm being kind here). The lineup hasn't been nearly as potent as it should be with the talent that's out there (Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder could use some help from Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy). We've seen that the pitching isn't good enough to overcome the lack of production behind them.
So, whether or not the Brewers can make up what is not a big deficit in the division might very well come down to Doug Melvin and his ability to make a trade that will help this team. He's done it in the past. He might not be able to make a CC Sabathia type of trade, but he has more than enough ammunition to make a deal for Washburn.
The Cardinals have shown they are willing to go for it now. When it comes down to it, the Cubs probably will, too.
It's your move, Doug. Are you all in?
1 comment:
Saunders - I must disagree with you, as i disagreed with this column when it came out. You have to plan for 2010 now. Get a jump on it. This team is not 1 pitcher, or 1 move, away from contention. It has too many holes. Retool for 2010.
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