Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Ted Will Never Win, Even If The Packers Do



Milwaukee has seen its share of sports villains. Gary Sheffield is one of the most reviled sports figures the city has ever seen (as he should be). Gary Payton will never feel the love here the way he feels it in Seattle (deservedly so). The day that Ned Yost got fired by the Brewers is a day some Brewer fans would like to see turned into a holiday. And then there's Packers GM Ted Thompson.

I feel bad for Thompson. That statement alone is sure to lead to some interesting emails. But, it's true. I do feel bad for him.

Why? Because no matter what happens, Thompson is never going to win the hearts and minds of Packer Nation. Ever.

The off-season is well underway, and Thompson has done exactly what I said he'd do. Nothing of note. There has been - up to this point at least - no big splash. No Albert Haynesworth. No Julius Peppers.

This has fans in an uproar. I expect that, but what I didn't expect is the way the media has turned on him. The same media that almost universally was behind Thompson throughout Favre-gate is now screaming for him to do something.

I was surprised last week when a columnist I respect, Michael Hunt, took Thompson to task for standing pat. If you want to rip Ted for what he said about the Packer roster, go ahead. I don't have a problem with that. Those comments were misguided, at best.

Everyone - including the media now - wants Thompson to spend money like a drunken sailor. Spend the way the Redskins did on Hayneswrth (a contract I think Washington will one day regret). Spend the way the Giants did on Chris Canty (calm down on that one - he's Chris Canty after all).

I've said this before, but I think it needs to be repeated. Thompson isn't going to change. You can't teach an old dog new tricks. Thompson isn't all of a sudden going to run the Packers the way Dan Snyder runs his team. He's got his own way, and for better or worse, it will be the way the Packers are run until Thompson leaves - either on his own or with a shove out the door.

There's no doubt that Thompson is taking a chance here. If the Packers don't improve upon last year's 6-10 record, the rumble to remove him as GM will turn into a full fledged roar. And, if the Packers don't turn it around, it's very possible President Mark Murphy will decide to make a change.

But, there is also reason to believe the Packers will turn things around after a disappointing 2008 season. Aaron Rodgers has a year of starting in the NFL under his belt, and he should improve upon what he did last season. Bob Sanders' read and react defense is gone, and Dom Capers is installing the 3-4 in its place. Considering Capers' track record, it is reasonable to believe that the defense will be a lot better than it was a year ago. The Pack will also benefit by the return to health of players like Nick Barnett, Cullen Jenkins, and others.

The Packers are in much better shape now than they were heading into the 2006 season. At that point, the team was coming off a 4-12 season, had a new coach, and no one knew what to expect. Three years later, the Packers have a foundation. The offense is one of the better ones in the league. The defense, with its new scheme and healthy bodies, could be a lot better than it was a year ago.

I tend to believe the Packers will be a better team than last season's 6-10 edition. Are they a playoff team? I'm not willing to go that far yet. But I will say this. There weren't many people who had the Arizona Cardinals pegged as a Super Bowl contender in March of last year. We saw what happened there, right?

There also weren't many who thought the Packers would have gone 13-3 in 2007. But, the NFL is not a league of absolutes. If you haven't learned by now, the NFL is a league where almost anything can happen.

And let's say it does. Let's just say the 2009 Packers are better than anyone expects them to be. Will Ted get any credit? Will a restless Packer Nation back off the embattled GM?

Probably not. Fans (and media) will probably give credit to Rodgers if he matures into a winner (the one thing he hasn't done as of yet). Coach Mike McCarthy will probably get credit as well, just as he did for what happened in 2007. Capers will probably get credit for installing a defensive scheme that turned the defense into one of the better ones in the league. Thompson, though, will not get credit. Even if he deserves it (and if they trn it around with the players he brought here he would deserve it).

There are a couple of reasons for this. First of all, Thompson will probably never be forgiven for trading Brett Favre away last August. To that, all I can say is that Favre, injured and looking older than we thought he would, failed to lead his new team to the playoffs. Thompson, who reportedly judged Favre to be on the downside after his performance against the Giants in the NFC Championship Game and against Chicago at the end of the 2007 season, turned out to be right about Favre.

Thompson had to make the decision on Favre based on what he had at the time, and what he would have had beyond 2008 (if Rodgers had asked for a trade - which was possible). It's a GM's job to make decisions two or even three years down the road. That's what he did when he decided to trade Favre. He wore the black hat in that entire saga, there's no doubt about that. But, part of his job is to make the tough decisions, and sometimes those decisions make you look like the bad guy - even if you're not.

Thompson also will never be looked at as a guy who will spend to win now. But, if you look a little closer, he actually has. What do you think the Charles Woodson signing was about? What do you think signing Ryan Pickett was about? It wasn't about building for the future. It was about trying to win now.

Going back at some of the non-moves Thompson has made, it's clear he was right more than he was wrong. Granted, not going giving up a fourth round pick for Randy Moss was a mistake, but outside of that, there isn't a lot to complain about. Who did the Packers miss out on in Thompson's years here? Edgerrin James? There were a lot of people (myself included) who wanted to see James in Green and Gold. But, it's safe to say James was never the player in Arizona that he was with the Colts.

The other player that many wanted to see Thompson sign during his tenure here was Adam Vinatieri. Thompson passed on him, and even though Vinatieri went to the Colts and helped them win a Super Bowl, he wasn't the same guy he was with the Patriots. On top of that, I didn't really hear anyone complain about Dave Rayner or his eventual replacement - Mason Crosby.

Thompson is never going to be Mr. Popular. The track record actually shows he's not as bad as some people make him out to be. Perception is totally different. He's the guy in the black hat. He's the bad guy for letting a legend get away. He will never recover from Favre-gate. Even if his Packers manage to turn it around and turn into winners. Big winners.

And that's why I feel bad for him.

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